Why IDC Predicts Windows Phone Will Surpass iOS by 2016

In four years, Windows Phones will be more popular than iPhones, according to IDC. 

Not only will Windows Phone outshine BlackBerry in the worldwide smartphone market, it will surpass Apple’s iOS and become the second-most popular smartphone platform by 2016, states a forecasting report released by IDC on Wednesday.

It’s a lofty prediction considering that Windows Phone had a mere 2.2 percent market share in Q1 2012 smartphone shipments. That’s significantly behind BlackBerry’s 9.7 percent share, let alone the 23 percent owned by iPhones. But despite a slow start, IDC analysts maintain that Windows Phone will see huge growth in the coming four years. And it has a lot to do with pricing and emerging markets.

IDC’s report forecasts that Windows Phone market share will grow from its current total market share of 5.2 percent to a whopping 19.2 percent in 2016. iOS, however, will maintain relatively unchanged, with its total 20.5 percent market share dropping to 19 percent. As for other platforms, Android will remain the leader, though it will see a drop from its current 61 percent lead to a more modest 52.9 percent market share.

What factors will make Windows Phone a breakout success? IDC analysts peg a lot of Windows Phone success to Nokia’s strength in emerging markets. Because Nokia is championing Windows Phone devices, emerging markets like Asia, Latin America, and Africa will more likely gravitate to Windows Phones.

“It really comes down to this: We can easily point to Nokia being one of the biggest leaders over there [in emerging markets],” Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team, told Wired. “Apple is making hay in China and Europe, but there are still other markets out there. I look at it and see that Apple is not shipping as much volume there.”

Llamas pointed out that in price-conscious markets like Africa, the iPhone has limited appeal. Only the “urban elite” can afford Apple’s smartphone. Windows Phone devices, however, come at various price points and will gain traction with cost-conscious consumers.

“What I see from Windows Phone so far is that they’re starting to roll out entry-level mass market smartphones,” Llamas said. “What’s iOS doing? They’re going to bring you an older iPhone for less expensive. Which one would you rather have: This year’s model or last year’s model?”

On the stateside, Windows Phone will get most of its boost from carriers and the release of Windows 8. Since Microsoft has such a vast lead in the PC market, with more than 84 percent of PCs running some form of Windows, Windows 8 could have a huge impact on Windows Phone adoption. (That is, if people actually like the Metro UI in Windows 8.)

And the fact that major carriers like AT&T and Verizon are standing behind Windows Phone is a good sign, too.

“The name of the game is going to be distribution,” Llamas said. “Windows Phone is still a couple paces behind, but it’s getting some rather critical winds to ensure its growth. AT&T and Verizon are very publicly saying that Windows Phone is for us.”

But even with all of these factors, can Windows Phone really surpass the iPhone? Aren’t these numbers a bit too optimistic?

IDC thinks not. Well i agree, The smartphone market is one where anything can happen, even Windows Phone going from a little-used platform to second in line.

“We’re still in the embryonic stages of the smartphone market,” Llamas said. “We’re seeing some players coming in and out. This market is very fluid. Anything could just about happen, that could put a dent in any player.”